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2022-2023 Rotation Predictions

By: Ben McCormick

July 30, 2022

Over the last two weeks, Duke has released two scrimmage highlight videos giving fans a glimpse at next year’s squad. They have provided some great insight into which players look to play big roles come November, but it is not an end all be all. After all, three Blue Devils are still not participating in these scrimmages. Two of which are possible starting candidates: Tyrese Proctor and Jacob Grandison. The other is walk-on Stanley Borden who just finished playing for Portugal overseas in the FIBA Europe U20 Cup. Proctor also just finished up international play for his native country of Australia as they won the FIBA Asia Cup in Indonesia. Grandison appears to be dealing with some form of injury as he is at practice (seen in the background of these scrimmages, but is not playing).

I want to begin by breaking down those scrimmages and what stands out to me. Then I will say how I expect Scheyer to go about rotations, what I think day one rotation will be and what I think the March rotation will be.

Scrimmage 1

Immediately, I notice a tendency to dribble drive across the board. Not just one guy, much of the team likes to put the ball on the floor and finish through contact. Good defensive activity is good to see. However, there are a couple of plays around the one minute mark in which Kyle Filipowski gets a little too loose with the ball, or is not aware of where help defenders are and he coughs the ball up. Obviously not something you want to see by November, but not uncommon for Freshman; even the most talented ones.

One thing that will likely fall between the cracks is just how pure of a shooter Max Johns seems to be. He may not be a major focus of this article, but I wanted to call attention to his three point marksmanship. Likewise, Dariq Whitehead and Jaden Schutt are three point threats.

Ryan Young shines bright in this scrimmage. He is tough and he is a seasoned veteran. Young has patience in the post, he hustles on both sides of the court, and can finish over and around taller defenders by using crafty footwork and ball fakes in the post. His ability to finish gritty plays and perhaps disappear under the basket and become the recipient of slip passes is reminiscent of Amile Jefferson.

Jeremy Roach looks like the same Jeremy Roach from March Madness which spells trouble for the opposition as Dick Vitale would say. Mark Mitchell is athletic and crafty, and Dereck Lively is tall (I know that is not much of an observation, but he is just really tall. It's uncanny). That said the ease with which Young scores on Lively is a bit concerning. Larger bodied centers could get the best of Lively on some matchups. Still, I am thankful that Lively is matched up with Young everyday in practice. He will inevitably grow as a player because of it.

As a whole, many of the expected main rotational players have great ability to score through contact and off the bounce (Whitehead, Flip, Roach, Mitchell). I am curious to see how bright of a green light Dereck Lively has from beyond the arc. Greener than Mark Williams ever had I would wager. Perhaps the same level as Bagley?

Scrimmage 2

The first and most important takeaway from this scrimmage is that Mark Mitchell is a certified bucket. I am the official president of the Mark Mitchell fan club because man is this young man underrated. His ability to score over multiple defenders and through contact is impressive. At 6'9, the ability to weave through traffic as he does is a skill that will have NBA scouts turning their heads toward Durham this season. He even shows an ability to stretch the floor and shoot the three. Mark Michell was the highest scoring player in this year's McDonald's All-American game with 19 points, and I would not be surprised to see him lead the Blue Devils in scoring on several occasions this season.

It is well known within the Duke fandom that Jeremy Roach is expected to have a breakout junior year, and these scrimmages give that assertion a lot of backing. The expected backup point guard, Jaylen Blakes, looks confident and more in control at moments than he was last season. Blakes' shot is not pretty mechanically (although the mechanics look improved here), but it has potential. Not only that, his defensive ability cannot help but remind you of Jordan Goldwire. The biggest difference is Blakes has the physical skillset that Goldwire lacked. A fantastic wingspan and vertical may help Blakes become a force within Duke's rotation as a Junior (or even sooner).

Dariq Whitehead is skilled and the most likely candidate to be the Blue Devils' best player next season. I love Ryan Young's willingness to take charges. He is the perfect do everything big guy. I really like Kyle Filipowski and Dereck Lively in this scrimmage. Both guys show an ability to score through contact, and I love the idea of Flip as an elite inside-out scorer.

And that deep three from Jaden Schutt...my goodness.


Roations

I expect Scheyer to experiment with rotations quite a bit throughout the season. I think we can safely say that Jeremy Roach, Dariq Whitehead, and Dereck Lively will consistently start (if not every game). However, the other two spots get a little dicey. Here are some of the possible starting fives combinations.

  • Potential lineup 1 (Veteran/3 PT): PG Jeremy Roach, SG Jacob Grandison, SF Dariq Whitehead, PF Kyle Filpowski, C Dereck Lively II

  • Potential lineup 2 (Guard centered/Fast): PG Jeremy Roach, SG Tyrese Proctor, SF Dariq Whitehead, PF Kyle Filpowski, C Dereck Lively II

  • Potential lineup 3 (Defense/Driving Lanes): PG Jeremy Roach, SG Jacob Grandison, SF Dariq Whitehead, PF Mark Mitchell, C Dereck Lively II

  • Potential lineup 4 (Big Lineup): PG Jeremy Roach, SG Dariq Whitehead, SF Mark Mitchell, PF Kyle Filpowski, C Dereck Lively II

  • Potential lineup 5 (Guard centered/Faster): PG Jeremy Roach, SG Tyrese Proctor, SF Dariq Whitehead, PF Mark Mitchell, C Dereck Lively II

Day One Rotation:

  • PG Jeremy Roach 6 Mitchell

  • SG Jacob Grandison 7 Proctor

  • SF Dariq Whitehead 8 Young

  • PF Kyle Filipowski 9 Schutt

  • C Dereck Lively II 10 Blakes

March Rotation:

  • PG Jeremy Roach 6 Filipowski

  • SG Tyrese Proctor 7 Grandison

  • SF Dariq Whitehead 8 Young

  • PF Mark Mitchell 9 Schutt

  • C Dereck Lively II 10 Blakes

I would not be surprised to see the day one lineup persist to March or a combination of the two be true for November or March. However, this is my prediction. I think Grandison gets the nod on day one due to experience, but Proctor's talent will lead to him starting by March. I believe Mitchell will become one of the teams best scorers and will replace Filipowski in the lineup for that reason (and defense) by March.


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