By: Jeremy Wilson
February 10, 2025
In a hard-fought contest on Saturday, the No. 2 Duke Blue Devils saw their 16-game winning streak come to an end with a 77-71 loss to the Clemson Tigers at Littlejohn Coliseum.
Despite the setback, this loss still provides ample reasons for optimism and valuable lessons to be learned for Duke, head coach Jon Scheyer, his staff and the players as they progress through the season.
But first, the Iron Belt Winner deserves his flowers. Junior guard Tyrese Proctor delivered a standout performance, achieving a season-high 23 points on 9-of-15 shooting, including 4-of-8 from three-point range. Freshman forward Cooper Flagg, despite a slow start with only four points in the first half, showcased his determination by scoring 14 points in a five-minute span during the second half, bringing Duke back into contention. Unfortunately, Proctor needed help from the other four starters (which he got some from freshman Kon Knueppel in the first half), bench and staff.
Duke’s loss did not impact their NET and KenPom rankings. As of Sunday, Feb. 9, the Blue Devils are still the only team in the country with a Top 5 KenPom offense (No. 5) and defense (No. 4). The ball and numbers don’t lie and Duke’s biggest lesson Saturday may well be that the better team on paper does not always win the game. The scouting report for Duke: play above season averages and play as physically as possible.
Clemson's efficient offense posed challenges for Duke's defense, with the Tigers shooting 68.2% in the first half and 58.8% overall—the highest percentages allowed by Duke this season.
Both Clemson’s offense and Duke’s defense had performances outside of their averages. The Tigers average field goal percentage was 46.7% heading into the game. It’s hard to beat a team shooting 12.1% above their average, especially when Clemson was hitting highly contested shots.
Duke failed to hold Clemson significantly under their scoring average of 77.3 points. The Blue Devils successfully held Clemson to a lower three-point percentage than their own. The Tigers entered the face-off shooting 38.4% from three, an advantage over Duke’s 36.9%. However, on Saturday, Duke shot 50% from behind the arc while Clemson shot 40%.
Defense has been Duke’s strongest side of the ball this season, but Clemson took advantage of the interior matchups. The Blue Devils got caught in mismatches which Clemson keyed in on switches. Outside of sometimes playing zone recently, Duke switches all five positions.
The Blue Devils did not seem to have the strong rim protection with only two blocks compared to their 3.7 block per game average. Yes, a slight statistical difference but the rim protection of Duke was negated by Clemson running action until they got the size mismatch they wanted: Duke guards defending Clemson bigs.
Saturday was the one of the only times when Duke’s height was less of a factor. Clemson out rebounded Duke 36 to 23 – Duke’s season rebound per game average is 38. The Tigers grabbed 25 defensive rebounds while Duke grabbed eight offensive rebounds.
The Blue Devils entered the contest averaging 16.7 assists per game and only recorded nine against the Tigers. The interior offense, much like the interior defense, needs clean up. The Blue Devils had 22 points in the paint while the Tigers scored 40. Clemson had 22 free throw attempts compared to Duke’s 14, and Clemson was called for 16 fouls while Duke was whistled for 23 fouls. A handful of bunnies were missed which may have changed the outcome of the game had they been made, but Duke needs to re-engage their fast tempo, downhill offensive attack which will open up the floor for the it’s prolific shooters.
Additionally, the Blue Devils committed nine turnovers which included lack of court awareness and failure to execute after a time out. That stuff happens sometimes, but this Duke team just does not usually have those moments, let alone during crucial plays and momentum turning opportunites. Potentially the biggest offensive outlier was Duke going scoreless for almost six crucial second half minutes which resulted in a 12-0 run for the home team.
Over the last five games, Duke has trailed in the second half in three of them. Only one resulting in a loss. The Blue Devils have thrived playing while trailing and have struggled to consistently put games away when leading. Some would say they play with their food too much. Maybe. The loss will minimally be a stinging reminder that this team, despite all the dominance, has yet to play a full 40-minute game and arguably they have yet to play their A-game consistently. Duke’s largest lead against Clemson was nine while Clemson’s largest lead was seven.
This loss, while disappointing, serves as a valuable learning opportunity. The Blue Devils remain atop the ACC standings with a 12-1 conference record and a 20-3 overall mark. Experiencing adversity can strengthen the team's resolve and highlight areas for improvement.
Coach Scheyer and his staff can use this game as a learning moment for staff and players alike:
Refine line ups: Duke’s bench is deep but not consistently used. Basketball is a game of rhythms and the hockey like substitutions can be a strength as long as it does not impact the team’s flow. Clemson’s interior was better but Duke did not go to a two-man big line up that was seen during Duke’s 29-point win against Syracuse.
Meeting the moment: players getting minutes need to be ready. There were miscues on defense and offense, players seeming frustrated with one another when lack of communication and attention to detail occurred.
Manage tempo: more set plays have been called recently. Coaches must balance learning in practice and learning in games. Practices can simulate real time experience to a point. The Blue Devils’ fast tempo, sharing the ball, and transition offense has been successful. Duke must find a balance of slowing down to call sets and playing faster than their opponent.
Rebounding effort: have to want the ball more than the other team does. Height alone doesn’t make a player or team better at grabbing boards.
Interior improvement: both the interior and defensive interior need securing. More teams will attack Duke’s switch all five now that Clemson gave a blue print and Duke needs to attack the paint on offense.
The Blue Devils missed veteran Mason Gillis. His veteran experience, his grit that has him unphased with physical play, and his versatility of hitting from behind the arc while matching up against opponents’ post players.
But even when a man is down, Duke needs to step up in big moments.
The match up against Clemson was a game that pundits and fans had circled on Duke’s schedule as the least likely game for Duke to win – only an 80% probability of winning. The loss is not an indicator that Duke is in trouble or no longer one of two favored to win the national championship. It simply means Clemson had a game plan that worked and Duke has work ahead of them – all fixable and no concerning trends.
Better to learn now than later because come tourney time, there’s only one rule to live by: win and keep dancing.
Jeremy Wilson | @TheJeremyDavid
Komentarze