By: Will Howson
December 8, 2023
In May, Duke basketball felt like it was where it should be. Kyle Filipowski, Tyrese Proctor, Mark Mitchell and Jeremy Roach all announced they were coming back. Returning their top four scorers for the first time since the 1985-86 season, paired with a highly touted recruiting class, caused expectations for another national championship contender. Six months and three losses later, including two unranked teams this past week, and that optimism has flipped. The returning players, the extremely talented freshman and the sharp, vibrant coach have all fell short of expectations.
Returning Players
When Mark Mitchell flushed his second of two dunks within 25 seconds against Georgia Tech, he put Duke up 66-62 with 2:20 to play. It seemed like an opportune spark to his poor start to the season. Unfortunately, he got called for a taunting technical foul that seemed to take the wind out of Duke’s sails. He followed up that technical with back-to-back turnovers.
It’s clear he hasn’t played with the same confidence the last couple of games. Looking at his advanced analytics, he’s improved in every area of his game except for three-point shooting (1-13). Last year in 54 attempts, he shot 35%. At this point, he doesn’t seem interested in shooting open shots, and it’s created a problem offensively. Scheyer will have to adapt how he uses Mitchell offensively if the shooting doesn’t improve to at least be a moderate threat.
Kyle Filipowski has mostly lived up to the bill. According to KenPom, he’s the most effective player in the country, besides presumed NPOY favorite Zach Edey. Improving his 28% three-point shooting percentage will be a focus. So will be protecting the rim, along with his pick-and-roll defense. While he does have a decent block percentage (7.4% according to Kenpom), he tends to allow defenders to consistently have easy paths to the basket. In the last two games, it’s obvious that the opposing coaching staffs were looking to put him into pick-and-roll situations defensively.
There isn’t any official update on Tyrese Proctor since his injury, but it doesn’t seem like he’s going to be back for Saturday’s game against Charlotte. He’s played well this season when you consider the job he’s doing on the defensive end and running the offense. Once healthy, it will be interesting to see if he can improve his three-point shooting (32%) as well, and become more aggressive offensively. One potential silver lining of the injury is that it provides an opportunity for other players to step-up and have bigger roles in the meantime.
Jeremy Roach is having his best season so far and is playing solid basketball on both ends. Many fans thought Roach may only be Duke's fourth or fifth best player this season, but so far, he has been their best besides Filipowski. We will see if those other players take the leap as we know what we’re mostly getting from Roach.
Talented Freshman
Eyes will be on Caleb Foster to be the starting Point Guard for Scheyer’s squad while Proctor is out. Eyes have always been on him though.
After sitting next to his mother, Yvonne, during the Dartmouth game – I understood how Caleb broke the California State Championship point record (33). To say he is focused and confident is an understatement. He has shown it in flashes this season but mentioned it was an adjustment to come off the bench. That probably won’t be the case in the near future as he’ll have his chance to showcase his point guard skills combined with his 6-foot-5 frame as a starter.
Jared McCain came into the year with the reputation as an excellent shooter. His 41% three-point shooting does reflect that, but it feels as if many of those makes have come in times where the game isn’t in a necessarily tight or tense moment. When I went to the Dartmouth game, I was able to go on the court an hour after the game and Jared was out there in full uniform still putting up shots. He has been given the title of arguably the hardest worker on the team, and his combined 31 rebounds over the last 5 games symbolizes that. One area he should give attention to is his shot selection inside the arc as he’s shooting just 31% on his two-point field goals.
Until the Arkansas game, the outlook for playing time for TJ Power was not favorable. In the last two games against Arkansas and Georgia Tech, he has combined for 29 minutes and nine points while shooting 3-4 from three. Defense and a lack of lateral quickness was mostly keeping him off the floor, but it’s clear that the team can use his ability to space the floor.
Out of all the freshman, Sean Stewart is the one who has generated the most conversation among the fanbase. He has played less than 10 minutes in five of the eight games so far. After the LaSalle game (18 minutes, 16 points, 10 rebounds), it seemed as if he finally made his mark on the rotation as an extremely athletic forward who can crash the boards and play above the rim. Since that game, he hasn’t scored a point and only has 3 rebounds in 15 combined minutes over the course of three contests. While Scheyer hasn’t explicitly stated why Stewart isn’t earning many minutes, it looks as if he tends to get lost on the floor.
Ultimately, if this Duke team wants to achieve their ceiling, they will need to carve out a role for him protecting the rim and the glass while taking some of the defensive burden off Filipowski. It may require some lumps and struggles in the meantime, but it could prove to be worth it.
Sharp, Vibrant Coach
This is the first time since the 1982-83 season that Duke has had two consecutive seasons where they entered Christmas with three losses. In his brief start to his coaching career, Scheyer struggled to have his teams playing strong basketball in the early part of the season. That theme has also shown true to start games in general. Against Arizona at home, Duke was down eight in the first half. Against Georgia Tech, they were down 14-2 five minutes into the game. It’s up to Scheyer and the rest of the staff to figure out how to get this team to be ready to compete with focus from the tip-off. Scheyer, in multiple press conferences over the last few weeks, has referenced playing together.
“The biggest thing is really sticking together, being together on offense," Scheyer said after the loss at Georgia Tech.
Sharing the ball on offense was supposed to be a strength of this team, but they currently have a 54% assist rate on field goals (according to KenPom), which ranks outside the top 100 nationally. With the great passers they have on this team, there is no excuse for that to be an issue.
The body language of this team doesn’t reflect one that is playing as a cohesive unit. According to Trilly Donovan, there is “tension in the locker room”, and he has heard that “off the court" there is "a divide between the old guys and the new”. While this could be speculation and certainly isn’t an official report, it does coincide with the product we’re seeing.
Rotations are going to be interesting to monitor in the coming games as Scheyer referenced that changes are coming, and they have the depth to alter the lineups. Whether that’s specific players seeing increased roles, or playing less three and four guard lineups, expect tweaks to be made.
Moment in the Program
As we are officially a quarter of the way through the season, many Duke fans seem to be in full panic mode. While the start to this promising season has been disastrous, I do want to point out a couple of notes to consider:
Their late game offensive execution has been atrocious in their three tight games (Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia Tech). While the Arkansas game really wasn’t that close, the game was not in question until a missed Caleb Foster three-point attempt at the end. In each of those games’ last three possessions combined, they are 1-3 with five turnovers.
In nine possessions they only got off three shot attempts. If you were to flip the Arizona and the Georgia Tech results, the narrative of this season's start would be much different. You would hope that late game variance ends up hopping in their favor and the execution in those situations improves. The major takeaway is that if a couple of these end-of-games situations turned out better, maybe Duke fans aren't in full panic mode as a fanbase.
While they have bigger problems than late game execution, ultimately this team is lacking an identity. While a No. 1 or No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament looks unlikely, college basketball truly is a sport that puts less emphasis on the regular season than other sports. Last year, Duke didn’t find their identity early and weren’t playing consistent basketball until mid-February. Going into that Feb. 14 game against Notre Dame, they were 17-8. They finished the season 10-1 with the lone loss to a tough Tennessee team where Mark Mitchell couldn’t play due to injury.
At the start of that NCAA Tournament, they were considered one of the title favorites. Hopefully the changes the staff makes going into Saturday’s game against Charlotte starts to put this team on the same tier they were on when they entered the season.
Will Howson |
@Duke_Wisdom
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