By: Ben McCormick
August 9, 2023
It's unfamiliar territory for the modern era of Duke basketball. With four returning starters — last season's top four leading scorers — there is more certainty than usual in Durham.
While next season's starting lineup has a lot of guarantees (which I will start by talking about those guys), there will be one starting spot that is very much in the air. Head coach Jon Scheyer could go a lot of ways with that last starting spot, and I'll talk about those later on in detail and elaborate on which combinations seem most likely.
The Easy Picks
Headlining the list of atypical returnees is former top-5 recruit, Kyle Filipowski, who is a shoe-in to claim one of the starting roles next season.
This time last year I was making bold claims about how projected first-round pick Filipowski might defy the odds and run it back for year two. Those claims were especially bold since Filipowski had yet to play a game at Duke (I wrote this in a September 2022). Ultimately, Filipowski outperformed the expectations of scouts and fans alike. He disproved the doubts about his defensive ability, despite dealing with hip injuries throughout the season. While he wasn't an All-Conference defender, he surprised a lot of people with his defensive effort and tenacity. There were questions about Filipowski's mental fortitude and his ability to immediately translate to the college game. He shot those down.
Filipowski, now the reigning ACC Freshman of the Year, was a projected mid-first-round pick in the 2023 NBA Draft. But he stuck around and made me look like a prophet.
Of course I was not alone in thinking that Filipowski may return, but now that it has happened it is a breath of fresh air. Not many projected first round picks return to Duke. In recent memory Filipowski and Grayson Allen might be the only two major examples.
It seems likely that Filipowski will be an ACC Player of the Year candidate and All-American hopeful next season as he seeks that deep tournament run he's talked about wanting to achieve during his time at Duke. He isn't the only Blue Devil that will be in the conversation for awards next season after turning down the draft though.
While Tyrese Proctor wasn't a projected first round pick after last season — he is now.
Sam Vecenie of The Athletic projects Proctor as the No. 6 pick in the 2024 NBA Draft. It's early, so that could change for better or for worse, but there is serious hype surrounding the Australian's sophomore campaign.
Proctor averaged north of nine points and three assists last year while shooting a terrific 87 percent from the line. He struggled to shoot it from the floor: just 38 percent from the field and 32 percent from three, but Proctor showed flashes of greatness.
He can use his superior size as a 6-foot-5 guard to disrupt a lot of plays defensively. He also has good pivot control and can hit some tough shots in the mid-range.
Duke will look to pair Proctor with returning senior captain Jeremy Roach.
Roach is just 20 points away from becoming the first Blue Devil since Amile Jefferson in 2017 to surpass 1,000 career points as a Blue Devil. The kind of longevity Roach has provided as a former 5-star recruit is atypical, but a welcome surprise. But, I wasn't as surprised as some by Roach's decision.
Many were convinced that Roach would leave after his junior season, not for the NBA, but for some other professional career. There was a belief that he had done all he needed to do, that he had proved himself, and the incoming talent was too great for him to maintain his spot as "the man" in the backcourt.
That always seemed wrong to me. Roach has the chance to enter the record books, win awards, compete for championships, continue to play big minutes (despite what others may think), and still end up with the same professional career he would have entered into a year prior.
Anyway, Duke returns its valuable veteran who will partner with Proctor in the backcourt once again.
Finally, the fourth returnee, and final projected presumptive starter is Mark Mitchell.
The former McDonald's All-American game leading scorer has fantastic length at 6-foot-9 that makes him an effective defender and slasher. Mitchell will look to play primarily the four but also the three. With a game that is increasingly without position, Mitchell is the perfect forward.
He has the tools to be an elite scorer and he showed it at the beginning of the season for Duke. As the year progressed, he became less and less involved in the offense at times. If Mitchell can be consistently aggressive in seeking his shot, then Duke will have one more high level scoring threat in its arsenal.
So, who is the last starter?
Well, this is a team with 12 legitimate rotational players. While all of them do not have claims for starting, like Jaden Schutt and Jaylen Blakes, many of them do. Let's start with the oldest potential option and work our way down.
Ryan Young
"Rec League Ryan" isn't flashy, unless you count pump fakes in the paint or a big time just-over-the-rim two-handed throw down in the ACC Tournament as flashy.
He may not be flashy, but he's impactful.
Young is efficiency walking. According to KenPom's advanced statistics, Young ranked No. 17 in the nation in offensive rating (Dereck Lively II ranked No. 10, which isn't totally relevant, but it's interesting).
He also ranked No. 13 in offensive rebounding percentage, as I'm sure you are aware from the amount of times broadcasters beat fans over the head with his prowess on the offensive glass. But there's good reason they kept hammering away at that point. Young is a phenomenal rebounder on Duke's side of the court, and that ability will be even more important this season as Duke projects to have a much improved three-point shooting team. More boards means more kick outs.
Finally, Young also ranked No. 25 in the country in 2-point percentage as he shot 68.5 percent from inside the arc. Young isn't going to be a jump-shot shooter — regardless of the video the team posted of him splashing a three. He should have the ability to knock down open mid-range jumpers though given his 81 percent stroke from the line.
In conference play, Young ranked No. 3 in the ACC in both 2-point percentage and offensive rebounding percentage; he ranked second in offensive rating.
If Jon Scheyer wants a dependable option, and another true big man to place next to Filipowski, Young might be his guy. Sure, there are some serious defensive concerns, and for good reason. Young isn't the most mobile defender, so it's difficult for him to stay with guys on the perimeter or compete with athletes in the paint.
If it weren't for the defensive woes, Young would likely have this slot locked up to start the year (unsure if he'd keep it as the season progressed). Ultimately, I think Young's role will look similar to last season. He will likely see a few starting spots to begin the season, and in my opinion will be the fifth starter for game one. But, as the season progresses his minutes will decrease to about 10 to 15 a game and Sean Stewart will step into the second big man role as he continues to develop.
Christian Reeves
Reeves starting feels like a stretch. Of all the potential starters, he is clearly the least likely. In just 13 games of action last year, Reeves logged 3.2 minutes per game and 1.5 points per game. And, somehow, despite his length and shot blocking ability, he didn't record a single block.
Still, he showed flashes of what he could be at Countdown to Craziness last year. He had 11 points and a trio of blocked shots. If the goal is to replicate the center position Duke has utilized over the past three seasons with Mark Williams and Lively II, then Reeves is their guy.
The former 3-star from Oak Hill is 7-foot-1 and the team is reporting that he weighs 261 lbs., that's up 16 lbs. from last season. He can play the dunker spot and as he develops he can more and more resemble his predecessors.
However, it still feels like a long shot at this stage of Reeves' career. As an upperclassman he will likely be looking at a bigger role. This season, my biggest hope is that he doesn't waste away on the bench again, because it feels like he should have redshirted last season.
Sean Stewart
Now let's get into the freshman. Starting with the third big man option, Stewart.
Stewart is 6-foot-9, so a bit under heighted as a big, but not so much so that it's a concern, especially considering his physical strength. He was ranked as the No. 21 player in the class of 2023 by 247Sports, down from No. 8 at one point.
Stewart, like most of Duke's incoming freshman was a bit underrated toward the end of his high school career. Still, the fifth ever Blue Devil to win the McDonald's All-American dunk contest, Stewart has a lot to offer.
First and foremost, he is athletic — clearly. His shot blocking ability is really intriguing. I have been talking about how Stewart should get a lot of starts this season for awhile. When others were calling for a deep dive into the portal for another center, I was content with Stewart.
Yes, he's undersized, but his defensive capability as a five man should translate. And it's really intriguing because he would allow Filipowski to play the five on offense, but switch to the four man slot on defense. This is important because it would help prevent Filipowski from getting into foul trouble often. There are concerns about Flip's defense, so having Stewart in the lineup would help to ease some of those concerns.
I wouldn't put my money on Stewart winning the starting spot right away, but coming off the bench isn't new to him. He was named the sixth man of the year after coming of the bench last season for Montverde Academy.
TJ Power
I'm getting déjà vu because it feels like 2011 again.
TJ Power looks like a carbon copy of Kyle Singler. From the shot mechanics, to the height, to the build. Even down to the jersey number and the wristband, it looks like Singler is back in Durham. And anytime a player can be compared to the No. 4 all-time leading scorer in school history, there's reason to be excited.
Positionally, Power makes sense in the lineup. If Scheyer wants to run Flip at the five and Mitchell at the four, like I suspect he does, then running Power at the three works. You aren't sacrificing any height with Power because he is 6-foot-9, just like Stewart. You may be compromising inside presence and defense, but you are adding a prolific shooter.
Power's ability to shoot the ball overtop defenders will be extremely valuable this season and beyond for Duke. Among the six starting candidates, Power is in a unique position. There are three bigs and two guards, but only one true wing. In fact, the only player that can directly step into a true small forward position (besides Mitchell), is Power.
He isn't my pick to start the most, but I can certainly see him nabbing some starts. What he brings to the table as a shooter is invaluable.
Caleb Foster
There are few players that have been looked past as much as Foster. That's why it was a beautiful sight to see Kevin O'Connor of The Ringer put him No. 12 on his NBA Draft big board. While O'Connor seems to be in the minority with his high level NBA admiration for Foster at the moment, his praise is well founded.
No, I do not believe Foster will be a one-and-done. But I do believe he is deserving of first round NBA consideration — both things can be true.
The fact is, Duke has four high level backcourt players that all will not have the opportunity to put up the numbers they are capable of. At least one of them will not have the opportunity for enough production to make the jump to the pros after this season, and I think Foster will be that guy. It won't be for a lack of talent, but rather an abundance of talent.
He has consistently been looked over, though. I won't be making the same mistake.
Even after being named the 2022 Peach Jam Offensive MVP after averaging 25.2 points and 4.2 assists per game on 44 percent shooting from three, Foster actually dropped in the recruiting rankings by the end of his senior year. He ended ranked No. 22 as a 4-star for 247Sports.
But the 6-foot-5 guard can flat out score. Perhaps one of the most gifted bucket getters Duke has, many thought Foster might decommit and run from a loaded backcourt, but the childhood Duke fan is sticking it out because he is betting on himself.
As he should.
No, I do not envision Foster being the most common player to get the fifth starting job, but that doesn't mean he should be looked past any longer. Caleb Foster is the real deal, and he will play a big role in Duke's offense, likely anchoring one of the most talented second units in college basketball.
Jared McCain
And now we arrive at everyone's favorite TikTok star.
McCain is perhaps the most skilled player among the candidates for the final starting job. At 6-foot-3, McCain is a shooter. He put up an unreal performance en route to being the 11th Blue Devil to win the McDonald's All-American 3-point contest.
California's Mr. Basketball has brought his early morning work ethic across time zones. Scheyer says that he is consistently the first one in the gym, arriving at 6 a.m. every morning. His work ethic has been recognized too. He appeared at No. 18 on O'Connor's NBA big board and received quite a bit of praise for his recent performance at Chris Paul's CP3 Elite Guard Camp.
Draft Express' Jonathan Givony had this to say about McCain on Twitter/X, "McCain was the best player on the floor in both days of the CP3 elite guard camp. Elite worker, has changed his body, improved his ball-handling and finishing, and plays with tremendous feel and unselfishness. NBA guys are high on him."
Strictly from a skill perspective and what McCain brings to the table, he is the best starter option. He can utilize his strong frame to defend on the perimeter. He's a playmaker and a shooter. He brings different things than Proctor and Roach, which is why he could make up a three guard lineup. That certainly seems like something Duke will try during the season, depending on the size of the opposing team.
As the season progresses, McCain should find his way into the lineup often.
Final Rotation Predictions
Of course, there will be lineups in which at least one of the big four returners is not a starter — it will happen. But the lineups I'm presenting will be the most frequent combinations, and I do not think it will be a common event for Filipowski, Mitchell, Proctor, or even Roach to find themselves coming off the bench.
So, here is my day one lineup, and potential end of season combinations as well (depending on matchup).
For further analysis on the fifth starter discussion you can check out the latest episode of the Duke Wisdom podcast. And if you have any thoughts on the topic and want to publish your own thoughts, go join the Duke Wisdom Network so you can become a contributing writer.
Only time will tell how wrong these projections turn out to be, but it sure is fun firing a crossbow in the dark in August, isn't it? And who knows, maybe I hit a bullseye.
Ben McCormick | @Duke Wisdom
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