By: Ben McCormick
December 5, 2022
The No. 15 Duke Blue Devils will travel to New York, N.Y., for a neutral site game against the Iowa Hawkeyes on Tuesday Dec. 6 at 9:30 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcasted on ESPN.
Duke's final "Marquee Matchup" of non-conference play looked like it was going to be between two ranked teams, but curiously Iowa remained the first team outside the top-25 in this week's AP Poll after Ohio State held on to its No. 25 ranking despite a loss to Duke. Tuesday's bout between the No. 15 Blue Devils and the Hawkeyes will be part of the annual Jimmy V. Classic, an event that celebrates the life and career of the late national champion head coach Jim Valvano. The event also brings awareness to cancer research, you can see more on The V Foundation, and donate here.
Keys versus Iowa
Statistics used here derive from KenPom, check out the statistical database, and be sure to subscribe for in depth stats
Iowa began its season 5-0, including a three-point win over Clemson, before eventually dropping to currently ranked No. 24 TCU, 79-66. The Hawkeyes followed up their loss with a nearly 20-point victory against Georgia Tech. Now 2-0 against ACC foes, Iowa faces up with its highest rated opponent: No. 15 Duke.
Despite not being ranked in this week's AP Poll, Iowa is rated as the 23rd best team in the country via KenPom's rating system. The Hawkeyes boast the 4th highest rated offense in the nation, with a 117.3 adjusted offensive efficiency, according to KenPom. The Hawkeyes keep the ball on a string, posting the lowest turnover percentage of any team in the nation. Iowa is even good at crashing the offensive boards, where they rank top-25 nationally.
They owe much of their offensive success to Kris Murray, the brother of last year's fourth overall pick in the NBA Draft, Keegan Murray. Kris is averaging 21 PPG and 10.6 RPG to start the season, including two 30+ point scoring nights, one of which came in their last game against Georgia Tech (31 points).
Regardless of Iowa's success on offense, they are a profoundly average team on defense. Scoring on the Hawkeyes will not necessarily be easy, but not as difficult as it has been at time for Duke.
The main keys are to limit three point makes and keep Kris Murray's point total low. After Iowa's first game of the season, Murray has led the Hawkeyes in scoring in all but two games, its loss to TCU, and its closely contested game with Clemson. In both games, Iowa shot 21 percent from three (vs. Clemson) and 17 percent (vs. TCU). Murray only scored 11 points in the Hawkeyes one loss. It is clear that the recipe for success for Duke is protect the perimeter and limit Murray.
Things to Watch for Duke
Dariq Whitehead
Whitehead, or at least the version of him we know he is capable of being is still waiting to be unleashed. Whitehead hasn't scored more than seven points in a game so far this season and is scoring 5.3 PPG. He has shown flashes of brilliance, but looked hesitant at times. Whitehead appears to force a lot of shots as he hopes to see big shots go down. It has not worked out in his favor thus far, but as more time passes and he becomes more comfortable on the court and more removed from his injury, opportunities will present themselves for Whitehead.
I like to think of Whitehead's start in similar terms to A.J. Griffin last season. Griffin failed to score more than five points until his fifth game in a Duke uniform when he had a breakout game vs. South Carolina State with 18 points. Even after he had that game, it was followed up with just two combined points over the next three games. Griffin similarly dealt with a foot injury, and was slow to start, but now, he has two 24 point games as a rookie in the NBA and is knocking on the door of a double-figure average just over a month into his career.
Things will look up for Whitehead.
(READ MORE: "Dariq Whitehead, a projected top five pick off to a slow start, we've seen this before").
Duke Freshman Standout Amongst Weak Field
Although it may seem like Duke's freshman have been less bucket friendly than in season's past, that most certainly will not detract from the hardware they are on-line to compete for by season's end.
Kyle Filipowski was named the ACC Rookie of the Week on Monday, his fourth consecutive win in as many weeks (he is four for four so far). He is the first Blue Devil to earn the recognition in four straight weeks since Jabari Parker did in 2013-2014 (Parker did so in five straight weeks). Filipowski will have the opportunity to notch his fifth consecutive honor this week as the Blue Devils take on Iowa and then Maryland Eastern Shore to close out non-conference play. Unfortunately, the 6'11' forward will not be able to break Parker's record with a sixth straight win as Duke will not play at all the week of Dec. 12.
Filipowski is not the only Blue Devil who has a chance to be recognized for stellar rookie play come March, another four will likely have solid claims as well. If the season were to end today, Mark Mitchell and Tyrese Proctor would likely earn spots on the All-Freshman team alongside Filipowski. As inconsistent as the pair have seemed at times, they still rank 4th and 5th in freshman scoring in the ACC at 9.5 and 7.5 PPG respectively.
I've talked about Whitehead's potential, but Dereck Lively II is another guy who really has the potential to flourish as the season presses on. Lively is already showing vast improvement as he has combined for 19 points in his last two outings, including a career high 11 points vs. No. 25 Ohio State.
READ MORE: "Filipowski and Duke freshman class off to a promising start, but this is just the beginning"
Duke Advanced Statistics
I have digressed a bit from the matchup at hand, so as a refresher, Iowa--good on offense--nothing to write home about on defense. Duke is not at the same level as Iowa offensively, but they are still good. KenPom rates Duke's offensive efficiency at 113.7, good for 17th in the nation (the same as their overall rank according to KenPom). Defensively Duke has been the far superior team thus far. Duke ranks 28th in defensive efficiency, compared to Iowa at 76th. The place where the Blue Devils really shine, is on the offensive glass, where they rank 2nd in the nation. That is largely due to the efforts of graduate student Ryan Young who ranks 3rd nationally among all players in offensive rebounding percentage.
So, what kind of chance does Duke stand in keeping Iowa off the three-point line, or even outshooting them?
Outshooting them? I wouldn't put money on it, but it's not impossible. Duke ranks just 277th nationally in 3PT% at 30.5 percent. Although, Iowa is just 146th, shooting it roughly 4 percent better than Duke. The better news for Duke, is they rank 22nd in three-point defense (their opponents shoot just 26.7 percent on average).
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