By: Jordan Mann
September 15, 2023
The No. 21 Duke football team is off to a promising 2-0 start after defeating Clemson and Lafayette at home. Now, the Blue Devils will play Northwestern this Saturday, Sept. 16, in their third home game before going on the road to UConn in Week 4.
Scouting report on Northwestern
Duke has won the last four matchups against Northwestern, including a thrilling 31-23 win last year. A lot has changed since then though. The Blue Devils were a seven-point underdog a year ago. Now, Duke is an 18.5-point favorite.
Thankfully for the Blue Devils, they will not have to face former Northwestern Wildcat Evan Hull this year. Hull touched the ball 31 times for 278 yards and two touchdowns last year.
Another key person Northwestern has lost since last season is its former long time head coach, Pat Fitzgerald. That’s not breaking news by any means, but I've always been nervous about facing teams with an interim head coach. For example, last year, Georgia Tech was horrible under Geoff Collins, and then struck lightning in a bottle with interim coach Brent Key who led Georgia Tech in some big wins, including over Duke.
I know Northwestern doesn’t have the same roster talent as Georgia Tech, but I have a feeling they’ll try and rah-rah their way to a victory for their guy like he is the interim Rudy.
The Wildcats come into the game with a 1-1 record, which includes an ugly 24-7 loss at Rutgers and a 38-7 win versus UTEP in which they outscored the Miners 31-0 in the second half. But that score is a little misleading because Northwestern's passing game has been abysmal so far this season.
Northwestern quarterback Ben Bryant is 31 for 53 with 285 yards and a touchdown. He has also thrown two interceptions while being sacked seven times in just two games.
Northwestern’s run game had a good day against UTEP, and was able to gain 184 yards on the ground, which is slightly better than the 12 yards they had against Rutgers.
Prediction
I think this is a game where Duke can get what they want on offense. Last year, Duke quarterback Riley Leonard threw for 240 yards against the Wildcats, and the team ran for 221 yards as well. Not to mention, it was so early in the year last season that Leonard only had 17 rushing yards and wide receiver Jordan Moore only had two catches for 14 yards — although he did still have a touchdown.
Fast forward to 2023.
Duke’s run game has headlined the offense so far this season, but I have a gut-feeling that Duke offensive coordinator Kevin Johns will want to blow the top off that Northwestern secondary and get Leonard’s passing numbers up. Leonard has 311 passing yards on the year, and I have a feeling he will throw for 300+ on Saturday in a blowout win.
I expect the run game to continue its success as well, and could see Duke tally 150+ on the ground to go with Leonard’s 300+ through the air.
As I said earlier, Vegas has Duke –18.5 versus Northwestern. Earlier this week I hated it, but as I have thought about it more, and I think Elko wants his defense to take the next step. What better way to take that next step than playing a team that does not have an offensive identity?
Duke will move the ball — a lot — on Saturday, and Northwestern won't.
PREDICTION: Duke 42, Northwestern 10
@DukeFBFans |@bigjlittlejshow | @CoachJMann
Comments