By: Ben McCormick
January 6, 2023
Duke is fresh off of one of its most embarrassing losses (performance wise) in quite some time. And as many Blue Devils struggle to find their footing and the team still has no identity, you can't help but be concerned. The discourse around Duke's young talent all season has been "don't overreact and give it time." While I still think we shouldn't react too harshly, I think some reaction is warranted. And while I think we should give these young players more time to develop as the season progresses, we are halfway through the regular season with little sign of improvement for certain players, and in some cases a regression in production. The team as a whole has certainly seen a regression recently, dropping two road games to Wake Forest and NC State in the last few weeks by an accumulative 35 points.
The Blue Devils dropped 10 spots in KenPom's rankings, from 14 to 24, following their loss to NC State. That is a low mark for a team that supposedly has a potential five first round draft picks. That brings me to my next point, Duke's offseason changes are more unpredictable now than ever. The Blue Devils have five 5-star prospects coming in, and a lot of questions about who is leaving and staying.
At the moment, and this is obviously likely to change, I would say only one Blue Devil is legitimately ready to enter his name into the NBA Draft confidently: Dariq Whitehead. Even he has not played to his potential, but he is on his way (as I will talk about later on). Dereck Lively II is likely to be a one-and-done regardless of production due to his massive upside and athleticism. However, if his offense does not improve it is hard to imagine a team taking him in the first round. Tyrese Proctor and Mark Mitchell seem like more of a stretch as first round picks with each passing day. Yet, it seems almost impossible for Proctor to return to Duke if Jeremy Roach returns given Caleb Foster, Jared McCain, and Jaylen Blakes will already be occupying guard spots in rotation. Likewise, it seems unlikely that Duke will return both Mark Mitchell and Ryan Young (who could opt into an additional year), if they return either of them. Finally, Kyle Filipowski who is a projected first round pick does not look ready to opt into the draft yet, but ultimately might. Still, he seems like the most likely to return for a sophomore season based on what we know about him.
All of that said, this list is about how each of Duke's nine rotation players has faired this season as a whole, indicated by their ranking 1-9, and how they are trending lately in Duke's last few contests, indicated by their stock. Stock down does not mean I think the player is bad, it merely means they have been playing below expectations lately. Neutral means they have been playing (more or less) around a consistent level. Stock up means they are exceeding expectations or improving play as of late.
This is not meant to be a "Duke is screwed" article, it is a "Duke is struggling" article. I'm hoping to show who has been successful throughout the entire season while also highlighting recent struggles. It's a long season, but these young Blue Devils have a long way to go before they've put it all together. It will be trial by fire.
9. Jacob Grandison (GR)
Stock: NEUTRAL
Stats: 5.6 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 1.5 APG, 0.5 SPG, 0.1 BPG, 44.1 FG%, 36.6 3PT%, 100 FT%, 0.7 TO, 17.3 MPG
I made two tough decisions for Grandison. One, to rank him as the ninth best player when he has had some big impactful scoring performances. Two, was to mark him as a neutral trend instead of a stock down. I'll start with my decision to place him ninth.
Grandison has four double-figures scoring affairs, three of which came in Duke's first five games. He scored his season high against Bellarmine with 16 points and has scored in double-figures just once since (vs. Boston College on Dec. 3). For the offensive success he has had, he has been streaky and sometimes unimpactful on the offensive side. Grandison has two scoreless games, and four games in which he registered just two points, including Wednesday's loss to NC State.
Grandison has shot well from three (37%) especially from the corners. However, as a touted shooter, Grandison has struggled to do what he is in the game to do: hit shots. Still, he has more or less been playing consistently for the past month. There is an argument that he should be stock down, but his regression in scoring has seemed more natural than others on the team.
8. Dereck Lively II (FR)
Stock: NEUTRAL
Stats: 3.8 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 0.7 APG, 0.7 SPG, 1.9 BPG, 58.3 FG%, 0.0 3PT%, 53.8 FT%, 0.8 TO, 16.7 MPG
Dereck Lively hasn't exactly been an offensive force throughout the entirety of the season, but what is disheartening is he is not any more aggressive than he was to begin the season. Furthermore, the offensive sets still often ignore Lively. It would be a welcoming sight to see him used in similar lob actions Duke used for Mark Williams last season.
In Duke's last two games, Lively has scored 1 total point, making zero shots and attempting zero against Florida State. His trend is neutral because he really hasn't been a scorer at any point this season, at least not a the level he is capable of. Despite being the lowest scorer in Duke's rotation, his shot blocking helped him avoid the ninth place rank. At 1.9 BPG, Lively ranks second in the ACC in blocks per game. His ability to alter shots could be utilized even further, and Lively could be one of this team's most impactful players if he were more involved offensively.
7. Tyrese Proctor (FR)
Stock: DOWN
Stats: 7.5 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 2.2 APG, 0.5 SPG, 0.1 BPG, 34.6 FG%, 22.6 3PT%, 87.1 FT%, 1.4 TO, 25.7 MPG
Proctor looked distressed against NC State. He scored five points and turned it over 4 times in his second consecutive game on the bench after being pushed out of the starting lineup for the first time this season in Duke's win over Florida State. Proctor hasn't scored more than 6 in any of Duke's last three games. After making massive strides in confidence and efficiency, it is disheartening to see Proctor take a step back.
His rank is not a reflection of his skill. By no means is Proctor actually the seventh best player on this team, but his play has not warranted a higher rank thus far. His offense is behind where we thought he would be, namely efficiency wise. Proctor shoots just 34% from the floor and 22% from three, the lowest mark on the squad in both categories (among players who shoot enough shots). His shot is fluid and looks good, but it just isn't falling. A lot of that likely has to do with confidence. After all, we are talking about a player who didn't decide to reclass until last spring. Not everyone can dominate after such a quick turnaround like Marvin Bagley III did.
Proctor has struggled to command the half court offense, and Duke's lack of a true pass first backcourt player has not helped his efforts. The young guard appears rattled (as do other freshman on the team), and much of shooting is mental fortitude.
Getting into a groove offensively will help Proctor tremendously, but he has to be given the opportunity. So far, being benched has not lit the desired fire in Proctor's game.
6. Jaylen Blakes (SO)
Stock: UP
Stats: 5.8 PPG, 1.9 RPG, 1.9 APG, 1.0 SPG, 0.2 BPG, 41.2 FG%, 41.2 3PT%, 65.4 FT%, 0.7 TO, 19.4 MPG
Blakes effort and defensive tenacity have never been in question. Many have likened him to former ACC All-Defense selection Jordan Goldwire, and for good reason. Blakes' scoring has been a pleasant surprise, however.
Posting his career high 17 points against Wake Forest, Blakes was one of the lone bright spots for Duke in the loss. Once again, Blakes scored 17 points against Florida State, so despite a two point effort against NC State, Blakes has been much improved. He started the first two games of his career against Wake and FSU, and he has been the most improved player of anyone on roster throughout the course of the season (close call between he and Whitehead).
Blakes is the spark for Duke. He is their energizer and catalyst, but he has been relied upon for consistent high-level scoring recently, and that's just not his game. Blakes can score, but he shouldn't be Duke's top scorer over the course of multiple games. Blakes' stock is up, but the offensive struggles of some of his teammates hasn't helped him.
5. Dariq Whitehead (FR)
Stock: UP
Stats: 8.0 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 1.0 APG, 0.6 SPG, 0.1 BPG, 39.3 FG%, 33.3 3PT%, 90.9 FT%, 1.5 TO, 17.8 MPG
Due to injury, it has taken time for Whitehead to come into his own at Duke, and while he is still a work in progress, he has made some major strides lately. Whitehead claimed his career high 16 points in Duke's win over Florida State, his first game played in three weeks after he and Lively missed the Wake Forest game due to injury. The game before that, Whitehead claimed player of the game honors for the first time with 15 points against Maryland Eastern Shore. In a brutal showing for the team in Raleigh, Whitehead was the player of the game once again after being the only rotational player to hit a jump shot the entire night. He shot 4 of 7 from three en route to 12 points. In his last three outings for the Blue Devils he is averaging 14.3 PPG.
Whitehead might be one of the most important players on Duke's roster; I would argue top two at least. Preseason he was my no brainer pick to be Duke's best player and leading candidate to be the go-to-guy for Duke. This team has struggled to find a player it can lean on like Paolo Banchero was for last year's team. Before his injury in late August, it seemed clear that if anyone was going to be that guy, it would be Whitehead. The injury derailed his progression, but he is making his way toward stardom. I still believe Whitehead is the key to Duke's success, and it is only when he makes his next step that the team can do the same.
For now, his shooting splits are consistently improving as he becomes more confident in his shot. He is finding himself in the top-3 on the team in scoring each night, and he may be poised to crack the starting lineup very soon, or at least he should be.
4. Mark Mitchell (FR)
Stock: NEUTRAL
Stats: 9.5 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 1.5 APG, 0.4 SPG, 0.6 BPG, 51.4 FG%, 46.2 3PT%, 71.0 FT%, 1.5 TO, 24.3 MPG
Mitchell has been a really effective scorer at moments this season, but sometimes he disappears. His inconsistency is perfectly demonstrated by his last five games, starting with 17 points vs. Iowa on Dec. 6, then 2 points, then 14, then 8, and finally just 6 vs. NC State. He is frequently a very efficient scorer inside, in the mid-range, and even from three. He doesn't shoot the long ball often, but when he does he shoots an impressive team best 46%. Mitchell is a strong lefty driver with the ability to cut up defenses like a swiss army knife. I likened him to RJ Barrett in that regard earlier in the season, and I stand by that. However, what separates him from Barrett is his tendency to disappear.
I wouldn't say that Mitchell's stock is down because he has been inconsistent throughout the entire season. He has been on the cusp of phenomenal scoring all season long. He posted his career high in scoring, 18 points, in Duke's season opener vs. Jacksonville, which earned him runner-up for player of the game. Since then, he has been the runner-up six more times but never came home with player of the game. He always seems to be in the background. But his scoring ability could put him at the forefront of Duke's offense.
Mitchell is oozing with potential as a scorer, he just has to be consistently aggressive and refuse to disappear.
3. Ryan Young (GR)
Stock: UP
Stats: 8.3 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 1.3 APG, 0.4 SPG, 0.5 BPG, 76.6 FG%, 0.0 3PT%, 84.4 FT%, 1.3 TO, 21.3 MPG
When Ryan Young committed to Duke, I never would have guessed that he would be a top-3 player on this team come January, but here we are. I'm not saying that Young is top-3 talent on this team, but his efforts as a scorer and rebounder have earned him a spot at three. Not only has he been impactful as a scorer he has been incredibly efficient.
He has made all eleven of his shot attempts in Duke's last two games, including a 7-7 shooting night against Florida State (and 6-6 from the line) that earned him a 20-point, 12-rebound double-double and player of the game. Young shoots a blistering 76% from the floor, and even with an 8 PPG average, he has not registered enough shot attempts for ESPN to list him as having the number one field goal percentage in the conference, which he does. That's just how efficient he has been. He only has to shoot a few times a game to get his average. Young shoots the 7th best 2PT percentage in the nation, and is rated as having the 8th best offensive rating in the country by KenPom.
His work on the low block is not the only place Young claims unreal efficiency, he also ranks 13th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage. Ranking second on the roster in overall rebounding, fourth in scoring, and first in field goal percentage are a few of the accomplishments Young has brought to the table. Not to mention, he is a crucial veteran presence who can often be see directing teammates as a sort of big man floor general.
Many are concerned about his ability to defend giveen his athletic limitations, but what Young brings offensively and leadership wise to a young team struggling on to get its halfcourt offense going is invaluable.
2. Jeremy Roach (JR)
Stock: DOWN
Stats: 11.9 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 3.2 APG, 1.1 SPG, 0.0 BPG, 35.9 FG%, 32.3 3PT%, 77.3 FT%, 2.1 TO, 32.3 MPG
Before I say anything else about Duke's minute leading team captain, let me lead with the fact that Roach has been playing on a toe injury for over a month now and still playing big minutes with the expectation of running the offense. Hats off to the toughness the returning starter from last year's Final Four team has shown. Still, that does not mean his recent struggles can be ignored.
One thing cannot be refuted, Roach is the heart of this team. The role he is expected to play game in and game out is similar to the one Quinn Cook played perfectly in 2015. That is a lot of pressure for a player who has not been the center of attention during his first two years in Durham, and especially for a guy who is quiet by nature.
Roach has been brilliant in that role at times this season, he has two of Duke's three 20+ point scoring performances, including 22 points vs. Iowa, which was just a month ago. After sitting against UMES to rest his injury, Roach has not been the same. He was extremely turnover prone and panicked against Wake Forest. He scored 9 points on 37.5% shooting from the floor with 5 turnovers. He once again scored 9 points against Florida State, but often forced bad shots at the rim and ended the night shooting an inefficient 20%.
Although he recorded just one turnover against NC State, he was not able to easily break the pressure put on him by the long athletic backcourt of the Wolfpack. He finished with 4 points, all at the line. He has not been able to get Duke's half court offense into a good flow, and his decision making has been questionable at times. For example, he led a 2-on-2 break vs. NC State in which both defenders were in the paint, and Whitehead (Duke's hottest shooter that night) was wide-open in the corner for a three. Instead of dishing it, Roach tried to finish acrobatically over the two Wolfpack defenders, only to miss so badly it might as well have been a turnover.
Much like Whitehead's importance, Duke will likely only go as far as Roach will take them. Give him time, the captain will come back around, especially if his toe is able to heal up any. However, I have a feeling he may be playing on an injury the entire season, much like Seth Curry did in 2012-2013.
1. Kyle Filipowski (FR)
Stock: DOWN
Stats: 13.8 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 1.3 APG, 1.2 SPG, 0.7 BPG, 42.5 FG%, 27.5 3PT%, 78.5 FT%, 2.3 TO, 26.6 MPG
Filipowski started out the season better than most Duke fans ever imagined. He was a double-double machine, taking home four consecutive ACC Rookie of the Week honors to start the season, the most of any player ever at the beginning of their career. He is still very much in the ACC Rookie of the Year conversation alongside Syracuse's Judah Mintz. Filipowski was named to the midseason Wooden Award Top 25 watchlist, and he is top-5 in rebounding in the ACC.
In fact, Filipowski leads Duke in scoring, rebounding, and steals. He began the year hot, but recently he is beginning to lose some steam.
He is currently in the middle of his largest gap between double-doubles; NC State marked the fourth consecutive game without one. Despite leading the team in scoring vs. NC State, he still struggled to create his own shot, and he has really struggled with double-teams. As opponents have begun to implement more double-teams, Filipowski has begun to turn it over. The young big man is skilled as a scorer and rebounder, and has been gritty and hard working on the defensive end. By every stretch of the imagination, he has been Duke's best player. However, his dominance has let up and Duke has struggled as a result.
Duke's recent losses cannot be attributed to any one player, and certainly not Filipowski who led the team in scoring Wednesday night, but I cannot be the only one who thinks he has been missing a certain level of moxie recently. Filipowski has been at his best when the offense has been able to get him the ball down low. So, once Duke's backcourt is able to get into a consistent flow, my guess is Filipowski's game will follow suit on an upward trend.
Sources: https://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Duke, https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/player/_/id/4684793/kyle-filipowski, http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/conferences/statistics/_/id/2/acc-conference
@Duke_Wisdom
Comments