By: Ben McCormick
November 16, 2022
The first loss of Jon Scheyer's tenure came against Kansas last night in the Champions Classic. The Blue Devils looked young—which they are, but for as young as they looked, they almost won.
In the first half, the Blue Devils half-court offense looked foreign when compared to the first two games of the season. The offense was reduced to dribble-drives leading to forced, contested, and often off-balance shots that seldom dropped. In games past (albeit it's a small sample size against a different quality of opponent), Duke was inclined to put the ball on the floor and attack the rim. But, when the defense corrected, they would make the right read and pass to an open man. Last night, that was not often the case. Kansas blocked 13 of Duke's shots and the Jayhawks forced 18 turnovers, many of which came off of offensive fouls. The massive, and let's face it, irregular amount of offensive foul calls on Duke illustrates the alterations that Duke's offense went through. They were not sharing the ball in the same way. That was evident from the drop in the team's assist numbers. Duke had 8 assists versus KU, a pretty significant drop from the 19 they dished out against Jacksonville and 16 against USC Upstate.
After climbing back and maintaining a lead for most of the second half, Duke failed to close the game and came up short. Now their attention turns to Delaware and Bellarmine. Shortly after those two home games comes Duke's in-season tournament in Portland for the Phil Knight Legacy tournament (or PK85 because it is Knight's 85th birthday in February). That tournament may prove to be a vital point for Duke. A championship in Portland could prove invaluable for this young team, especially after having a quality win slip just beyond their grasp last night.
As you're reading this, you probably fall into one of two categories: 1.) the "yeah, they sucked" crowd, and 2.) the "they are young and this was a great learning experience, don't overreact." To the first crowd, I have to respectfully and wholeheartedly disagree. If this team was bad, they would have lied down and died in the first half; there would not have been a lead to blow at the end of the game if they were bad. To the second crowd, yeah, you're right—but you can't rule out how important early season games can be come March, whether that be in terms of tournament resume, historical trends, or merely Duke's strength of schedule this season.
1. Historically a loss in the Champions Classic doesn't bode well
Last night was Duke's fifth loss in the Champions Classic. Since the event's inaugural season in 2011, Duke is tied with Kansas with the best overall record through twelve seasons at 7-5. Duke is 1-3 against Kansas, the only team they have a losing record to. The Blue Devils have a 3-1 winning record over both Kentucky and Michigan State through the years.
Now that I have all the records and stats on the table—let's read way too far into them, shall we?
Duke's previous four losses, coming in the fall of 2013, 2015, 2016, and 2020 came as foreboding signs. Those four teams postseasons ended in the Round of 64, Sweet 16, Round of 32, and ACC Tournament respectively. Only one team escaped the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament after dropping in the Champions Classic: the 2015-16 Blue Devils. That same team had the worst seeding of any Duke team to make the NCAA Tournament since 2007. Yes, that low seed was still a four seed (that just speaks to Duke's success over the last decade-and-a-half), but it was a bit of a down year for Duke.
On the other hand the seven teams that won their Champions Classic games ended the postseason in the following rounds/manners: Round of 64, Elite 8, National Champions, Elite 8, Elite 8, COVID season, and Final Four respectively. Outside of 2011-12's first round upset loss, each team that got a chance to play in the tournament advanced at least to the Elite 8.
Correlation is obviously not causation, especially in this case. However, it does make you think.
At the end of the day, it is the third game of the season for a young team with a new head coach, and they are without a potential top-five pick in the NBA Draft in Dariq Whitehead. I know, this trend likely means nothing. But maybe there's something here. There is a historical trend supporting an early exit in March for Duke teams who don't win their Champions Classic game, and I can't help but think that Duke needs some big wins to make up for this lost opportunity.
2. Duke needs that marquee win in non-conference play
The ACC is having another "off" year, that much is no secret. Louisville is 0-3 after suffering three consecutive losses by one point each to Bellarmine, Wright State, and Appalachian State. Florida State is also 0-3 after dropping to Stetson, UCF, and Troy. Boston College lost to Maine at home, and Syracuse lost to Colgate at home. Wake Forest required a buzzer beater in overtime to beat Utah Valley. Clemson beat the same USC Upstate team Duke beat by 46 by just 11 points, and they lost to South Carolina the game before that. Even No. 1 UNC just escaped an upset from Gardner-Webb by the skin of their teeth. I could go on, but I'm sure you get the point. Who knows where anyone will be ranked come January, but it looks like there will be few opportunities for Duke to tally quality wins in conference.
Luckily for Duke, they have three to four quality games left in non-conference play.
Also, unluckily for Duke they have three to four quality games left in non-conference play. Two of which will come next week during the PK85, and that many tests could prove difficult for a young team to navigate.
If they can't get enough quality wins in conference to bolster their resume, the Blue Devils will need some non-conference wins to fall back on. The problem is that only one team Duke might play in non-conference is currently ranked. The next problem is that it is No. 2 Gonzaga. The third problem is that they have to win two other games to get to the Zags. Since Duke lost the opportunity to get a quality win over KU, they really could use a big win over Gonzaga. That is no easy task. Winning the PK85 with this young of a team is a tall order to tackle, especially when the team may not be fully healthy.
3. They need to win the PK85 to take pressure off potential trap games vs. OSU and Iowa
If Duke drops in the PK85, they will head into the Big 10 challenge versus Ohio State with a 6-2 record (that is if they do not fall victim to any upsets). That game against the Buckeyes and the following two against Boston College and Iowa are trap games. Duke should win them on paper, but it's during exam season, and history tells us at least one of these could spell upset for Duke. If that is the case, Duke could enter conference play 8-3, which would not serve them well in an argument for a top three seed come March.
Duke's non-conference slate is more difficult than in year's past, and picking up that first loss is not that big of a deal—as long as you don't pick up that second too quickly. Plus, getting a big marquee win early in the season can provide a big confidence boost for a young team and a young coach.
The Blue Devils have an important week ahead of them. A championship in the PK85 could help ease a lot of uncertainty for this Duke team.
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