By: Ben McCormick
August 16, 2023
Not many expected a Kansas hat.
But here we are.
Before a rather unusual last few days of Flory Bidunga's recruitment, he was considered a presumed Duke favorite, according to the 100 percent crystal ball prediction on 247Sports.
But then, those unusual last few days started.
On Friday, the tide turned drastically. It started with Jamie Shaw, a recruiting analyst for On3 Sports. Shaw published a piece revealing the latest intel in Bidunga's recruitment, including why he had flipped his projection for Bidunga to Auburn.
Just like that, Bidunga became an Auburn lock in less than 24 hours. He went from a probable Blue Devil to obviously a Tiger. After all, this projection made sense. Bidunga was set to make his commitment during halftime of the Under Armour Elite 24 game. Auburn is an Under Armour school. His other three final schools are represented by rivaling brands: Duke with Nike, Michigan with Jordan and Kansas with Adidas.
It appeared that former 5-star big man Chase Jeter would remain the last player to commit to Duke at Elite 24 — a fact which disgruntled many Duke fans when pointed out on social media. And in the wake of Duke's seeming recruiting miss, was the rejoicing of the Auburn faithful at the idea of the program landing its highest rated recruit ever.
Yes, it was all Auburn all the time. Until Bidunga pulled out a blue hat.
Duke? No, that would be the wrong blue blood.
For any Kansas fan that didn't lose faith or patience during the rain delay of the Elite 24 game — well done, you certainly reaped the reward. Bidunga picked Kansas, and the experts were all wrong, twice (aside from maybe Jeff Goodman, who called his shot for Kansas just before the announcement).
All this to say, it's difficult to confidently predict what guys are going to do, especially in the era of modern college basketball. At Duke, there is great recruiting appeal, but that doesn't mean it appeals to everyone equally. In fact, with increasing uncertainty about who is staying and leaving each year, there are less guarantees for recruits looking at Duke — even for a player of Bidunga's qualifications.
A couple of weeks ago, on the Duke Wisdom Podcast, I said that I anticipated Bidunga would commit to Duke and be Kyle Filipowski's eventual replacement in Durham. Well, so much for that. So, now I'm not confidently assuming anything. I'm laying out the options for what Duke's frontcourt could look like in 2024-25, and it's up to you to decide what you think is most plausible.
Here are the options:
Patrick Ngongba II
With the recent reclassification of No. 1 overall player Cooper Flagg, Duke is known to be actively involved with seven different players with outstanding offers. Only three of those players are 6-foot-8 or taller: Flagg and Tyler Betsey, who are both forwards, but not exactly big men; and then Patrick Ngongba II.
Of the three true big men who have received offers from Duke for the class of 2024, Ngongba is the only one that is uncommitted. He named his final eight schools on July 11: Duke, Indiana, Kansas, Kansas State, Kentucky, Michigan, Providence and UConn.
On June 10, Ngongba took a visit to Duke, and made an accompanying Instagram post showing off the Duke threads.
The 6-foot-11 center is from Fairfax, Va., and attends Paul VI Catholic — where he is teammates with 2024 Duke commit Darren Harris. Paul VI Catholic was also home to current Duke senior Jeremy Roach, and current New York Knick Trevor Keels. It's safe to say that Duke has had a stronghold at Paul VI for the past few years. And the Blue Devils plan to keep it that way with Ngongba.
He is listed as the No. 28 prospect in the class of 2024 in 247Sports' composite rankings; he is the No. 4 center.
"He has extremely soft hands and touch, equally impressive footwork, and a high release point around the paint," wrote Adam Finkelstein of 247Sports. "He provides a true low-post scorer, but is also an inside-out threat with developing shooting range out to the arc. He’s a good passer who is starting to punish double-teams, facilitate from different spots on the floor, and even deliver balls with both hands."
Finkelstein does a great job of describing Ngongba's game, and you should go check out the full breakdown, here. He goes on to point out how efficient of a scorer he is. Ngongba shot 70 percent from the field in the EYBL regular season this summer.
Ngongba is a threat on both ends of the floor that would certainly be welcomed in on next year's team. But will he be depended on as the sole proprietor of the paint if he commits to Duke?
That really is the question. I think there's a solid chance Duke could emerge as the frontrunner for Ngongba, especially given Bidunga's recent decision. But I wouldn't go so far as to say it's the complete solution.
Ryan Young is graduating. In all likelihood, Filipowski will leave after his sophomore year (more on that later). So, the bigs that will return are Christian Reeves and Sean Stewart. It is certainly possible that Reeves and Stewart could be ready to step in and hold down fort alongside Ngongba. So, let's explore that idea next.
Invest in who you already have
I've spoken about Stewart's value as a defender, which is why I favor starting lineup options that include him for his freshman season. While I think Stewart will have a great freshman showing, and likely have a sophomore breakout (assuming he is still on the team), I do think Duke needs a little bit more to hold down the paint.
Ultimately, Duke is likely losing two very sold big men with great size in Young and Filipowski. Expecting only a center who is below 6-foot-10 to shoulder the interior is a lot to ask.
That's why much of the investment plan is dependent on how well Reeves works out.
If Stewart is the predictable variant in this situation, even if you have Ngongba, you still have to have depth in the frontcourt. Hence, the development plan of the unpredictable Reeves.
Reeves has excellent size, length and athleticism. He has the tools to be a shot blocking rim runner with serious starter potential. But there are just too many question marks. For instance, with all the depth in the frontcourt in 2023-24, will Reeves see enough time to develop into a steady and dependable first big off the bench (or even starting big).
He could. But if you're Jon Scheyer you do not want to deal in "ifs" or "could", you deal exclusively with "we wills". Reeves will be great, but in all likelihood, there could be yet another addition to the frontcourt.
The yet to be seen big man
Be it a transfer, a reclassification or a late offer — there are ways to add a piece to a roster rather quickly. There's no way I could reasonably project what transfers could be available, so I won't bother. But there is always the possibility of adding a big off the bench from the portal that mirrors the roles of Theo John and Young.
A reclass could be an option. According to Joe Tipton of On3 Sports, Duke has offered 2025 7-foot center, Khaman Maluach. The 16-year-old from NBA Academy Africa is old enough to be eligible for the 2025 NBA Draft, meaning a reclass to the class of 2024 would make sense. A player like Maluach (but perhaps not necessarily him) could be a solution.
So, there is the possibility of extending the frontcourt depth with somebody we have yet to see enter Duke's radar yet. And, then, finally — there's the unlikely option.
Filipowski back
No, I do not foresee this happening. But, since we are laying out every option, this one cannot be ignored.
Filipowski has made the decision to pass up the NBA Draft once, so it's feasible that he could do it once more. If Duke does not find the team success that Filipowski is seeking; i.e., the kind of team success that would help him leave a legacy — then I could see Filipowski's decision becoming more difficult.
It's unlikely, but not impossible.
Plan A went downhill quick for Duke, so now the Blue Devils have to start weighing Plan B...Plan C...and even, Plan D, because nothing is guaranteed. So, if Duke wants to be a team that "will" be good in the paint instead of a team that "could" be good in the paint, it's time to start considering all avenues.
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