By: Ben McCormick
September 8, 2022
Per On3 Sports, Kyle Filipowski was the number one overall player in the class of 2022. 247Sports composite rankings (average of all major ranking sites) placed Filipowski (a.k.a "Flip") at fourth nationally.
And yet, he may not leave Duke after just one season.
When Filipowski committed to Duke, he was just a 4-star recruit, which is nothing to scoff at, but it's reasonable to think a 4-star prospect will remain in school beyond their freshman year. Soon after, Jon Scheyer's first commitment began to rapidly rise through the ranks. By the conclusion of his senior year, Flip was one of the nation's top prospects. And his NBA outlook was much brighter.
At the time of his commitment, Filipowski expressed a desire to compete for four years in Durham. It was thought at the time that Filipowski wanted to be a multiple year player, and there wasn't much reason to doubt that. However, regardless of intention, once a player becomes a top five player, the likelihood of a sophomore season becomes slim.
Take the following list of players, all top five prospects (or right outside), and all Duke commits of varying success while in Durham: Kyrie Irving, Austin Rivers, Jabari Parker, Jahlil Okafor, Tyus Jones, Brandon Ingram, Jayson Tatum, Harry Giles, Marvin Bagley III, Wendell Carter Jr., Trevon Duval, Zion Williamson, RJ Barrett, Cam Reddish, Vernon Carey Jr., and Paolo Banchero.
What do they all have in common? One season in Durham, then the NBA Draft.
On one extreme was Williamson, who was the National Player of the Year in 2019, averaging 22.6 PPG, and went first in the NBA Draft. The other extreme is Duval, who averaged 10 PPG, but went undrafted in 2018. Both guys were top five recruits and went to Duke. Both had drastically different seasons in Durham. But both found themselves in the same place come June following their respective seasons: the NBA Draft.
Any player that is highly touted in high school is bound to jump ship after one season. The odds say it is nearly a guarantee actually. No school has garnered as many top five commitments as Duke. And not one single top five player since 2010 has returned to Duke for a sophomore season.
I hope you forgive that digression, but I think it is important in establishing just how much of an anomaly it would be for Filipowski to return.
So, why am I writing this article? Because despite it being ridiculously early (I mean absurdly early to be talking about who will return after the upcoming season) there is evidence to suggest Filipowski may deviate from the norm.
Making the case:
First of all, there is Filipowski's own assertion around the time of his commitment that he will play four years. A lot of guys say this, and I think it should be taken with a grain of salt...normally. But in this case, there is reason to believe there may be some merit to that claim.
Duke received a commitment from 2023 5-star TJ power Wednesday afternoon. Filipowski offered the following reply to the team's announcement on Instagram, "From rivals to teammates 😉." That would imply that Filipowski intends to be around for his sophomore year to play with Power in 2023-2024.
Even if Filipowski is just getting ahead of himself, there is further reason to believe Flip will return.
In Sports Illustrated's first NBA Draft big board for 2023, Filipowski doesn't come in until 19th. Not a low mark by any means, but not the typical preseason projection of a top five high school player. Does that mean scouts are already skeptical of Filipowski? Probably not. Mock drafts means essentially nothing this early. Plus, Flip will turn 20-years-old in November of his rookie season even if he bolts after one season. This means an extra year in Durham would place him at 21 by the time he begins his rookie year. Age matters a lot when it comes to draft position, and draft position matters a lot when it comes to dollar signs.
Even if Filipowski wants to return, the allure of being a guaranteed first round selection after one season may prove too difficult to turn down.
Still, it's interesting to play "what if". And there is one more piece of compelling evidence that Flip could make a sophomore return.
Jon Scheyer has once again pulled in the number one class in the nation. The class of 2023 features five 5-star players. Two guards: Caleb Foster and Jared McCain. And three forwards: Mackenzie Mgbako, Sean Stewart, and now TJ Power. Stewart is the only one of the forwards who could stretch and play center. This is an important detail because Scheyer has not offered a center in the class of 2023 since Xavier Booker, who committed to Michigan State. Furthermore, Duke's center next season Dereck Lively II will almost certainly be a one and done.
So, who will play center in 2023-2024?
Like I said, it could be Sean Stewart. But that would lead to a rather small lineup, especially if Northwestern transfer Ryan Young does not opt to use his fifth year of eligibility in 2023-2024 to provide relief at the five spot. If Scheyer is banking on having a traditionally sized center in 2023-2024 (that isn't Young), he may be banking on Filiposki's return.
Given all the other hints at a sophomore campaign Filipowski has already dropped, it doesn't seem farfetched to think Scheyer may be operating under the knowledge that Flip may very well return.
There's still A LOT of time between now and April, and a lot can happen over the course of a season. But unlike every other time Duke gets a top five prospect, this time we can't be one hundred percent sure Filipowski won't stick around for year two.
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